COVID REPORT

 Eric Gould's Daily Analysis

May 11, 2020

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𝐀𝐧𝐬𝐰𝐞𝐫𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐪𝐮𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧: "𝐈𝐬𝐧'𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚 𝐢𝐧 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐨𝐫𝐭𝐞𝐝 𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐣𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐛𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠?"

June 15, 2020

In short no. How does one know? Focus on growth rates. Looking at rates of change is critical in understanding what is happening.
Week1:
•100 Tested
• 10 Positive
Week2:
• 150 Tested
• 15 Positive
=> Headline: 15 new cases and increase of 50%. Yikes!

However there was a 50% increase in tests. Reality in my hypothetical but real scenario is the "positivity rate" (those testing positive as a percentage ) was unchanged at 10% and the increase in growth could entirely explained by my increase testing capacity/utilization. In a way this is neither "good" or "bad" just that the situation had not changed from week 1 to week2.

Is this what is happening now in the U.S.? No.

𝙎𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙤𝙣 𝙖𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙖𝙜𝙚 𝙞𝙣𝙘𝙧𝙚𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙙 𝙩𝙚𝙨𝙩𝙞𝙣𝙜 14.4% 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙥𝙧𝙞𝙤𝙧 𝙬𝙚𝙚𝙠 𝙗𝙪𝙩 7 𝙤𝙪𝙩 𝙤𝙛 10 𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙨𝙖𝙬 𝙙𝙚𝙘𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙨 𝙞𝙣 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙜𝙧𝙤𝙬𝙩𝙝 𝙧𝙖𝙩𝙚𝙨 𝙤𝙛 𝙘𝙤𝙣𝙛𝙞𝙧𝙢𝙚𝙙 𝙘𝙖𝙨𝙚𝙨.

More details at Eric Gould's Analysis 

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𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲.

𝐀 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝-𝟏𝟗 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬

May 18, 2020

• 1.53MM Cases Today(1.53MM Predicted). Expects 1.55 MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.24% to 1.57%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.46% to 1.35%
• Testing Growth(356,994)0.0% to 3.3%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.32% to 6.47%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
As of 5/14th:
• 41% of all Covid-19 deaths are in Long Term Care Facilities.
( 36 states reporting )
• 190K deaths in LTCF would be expected to die during Covid
• 111K would be due to infections
• 37K deaths in LTCF attributed to Covid

This leads to the questions that are not reported:
• How many have died in LTCF of all causes since Covid-19 started?
• How many have died from infections?

LTCF represent the worst of all scenarios. Vulnerable population in close quarters. Is Covid-19 just shining a light on the plight of LTCF residents and clouding how deadly Covid-19 really is?

The issue with Covid-19 is there are many dimensions to understand. This is just one.

Follow Eric Gould's Analysis 

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𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐥𝐲. 𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐈𝐧 𝐈𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐨𝐢𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬.

May 15, 2020

• 1.457MM Cases Today(1.45MM Predicted). Expects 1.48MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth increased 0.35% to 1.89%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.12% to 1.98%
• Testing Growth(335,182)0.2% to 3.4%
• Positivity Rate increased 0.07% to 6.75%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(353.1K Cases) 0.0%@ 0.6%
• NJ(144.0K) 0.3%@ 0.8%
• IL(87.9K) 0.6%@ 2.1%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• KY(7.2K Cases) - 1.2%@ 2.0%
• KS(7.7K) - 1.0%@ 2.6%
• UT(6.7K) - 1.0%@ 1.9%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• MS(10.5K) 2.0%@ 3.8%
• IL(87.9K) 1.8%@ 3.8%
• MI(49.6K) 1.7%@ 2.4%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Illinois had another bad day this week with the growth rate increasing 1.8% as it added 3.2K new cases and 136 dying. Mississippi also popped 2.0% is on my watch list as it surged today.

TGIF!

 

Follow Eric Gould's Analysis 


To see the progress of your state visit
https://lnkd.in/eQ-FrMb

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𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞 : 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡, 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝. 𝐉𝐮𝐬𝐭 𝐰𝐡𝐚𝐭 𝐰𝐞 𝐰𝐚𝐧𝐭.

June 8, 2020

• 151,739 New Cases This Week and 5,962 New Deaths.
• This week's growth dropped -0.55% to 1.89%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.58% to 1.41%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.90to9.47%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(378.8K Cases) - 0.5%@1.9%
• NJ(164.5K) - 1.5%@2.2%
• IL(129.1K) -1.6%@ 6.3%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• AL(20.9K) - 6.3%@ 13.1%
• VA(51.3K) - 6.4%@ 12.1%
• WV(2.2K) - 9.0%@ 6.5%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• AZ(27.7K) +12.4%@ 31.9%
• VT(1.1K) +6.8%@ 8.9%
• MI(64.4K) +6.6%@ 11.3%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Keep in mind that this analysis is percent change each week. So in some ways it does mask that there are areas of the country that are still seeing large numbers of new cases with California, Texas and Florida leading those increases this week

The Good/The Bad call out the largest changes up or down in the percent change for the week. For example VT Weekly growth rate was 2.1% last week and this week @ 8.9%. This is a large jump but 8.9% is not a large increase absolutely.

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𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐲 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐩. 𝟑𝟖 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐚𝐰 𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬

May 17, 2020

• 1.51MM Cases Today(1.51MM Predicted). Expects 1.53 MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.24% to 1.57%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.46% to 1.35%
• Testing Growth(356,994)0.0% to 3.3%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.32% to 6.47%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(358.1K Cases) -0.2%@ 0.6%
• NJ(146.4K) -0.4%@ 0.6%
• IL(92.5K) 0.3%@ 1.8%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• TX(47.7K Cases) - 2.5%@ 1.9%
• KS(7.9K) - 2.0%@ 0.4%
• NV(6.7K) - 1.0%@ 0.7%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• ND(1.8K) 2.0%@ 4.8%
• WA(19.2K) 1.6%@ 2.3%
• WY(0.7K) 1.3%@ 3.4%

Follow Eric Gould's Analysis 

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𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐝. 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝 (-.𝟑𝟖% 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝). 𝐖𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝟐𝐌𝐌 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤.

May 14, 2020

• 1.43MM Cases Today(1.43MM Predicted). Expects 1.45MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.08% to 1.54%
• Today's Death Rate increased 0.18% to 2.10%
• Testing Growth(225,734)0.0% to 2.4%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.32% to 6.68%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(350.8K Cases) 0.2%@ 0.6%
• NJ(142.9K) -0.1%@ 0.5%
• MA(80.5K) 0.4%@ 1.5%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• IL(84.7K Cases) - 3.0%@ 2.0%
• MN(12.9K) - 2.4%@ 3.3%
• SD(3.7K) - 2.2%@ 1.9%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• NE(9.1K) 2.9%@ 4.3%
• NC(16.4K) 2.3%@ 4.6%
• KS(7.5K) 2.3%@ 3.6%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Testing is key and although it may be happening slower than would be ideal and we are indeed ramping up our testing capacity. This past 7 days we added over 2MM new tests for the first time. Take a look at the chart of the day.

Illinois case reporting fell today but even at 2% growth and 84K cases they now have become third "Epicenter".

Follow Eric Gould's Analysis 

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𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞: 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤𝐥𝐲 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐥𝐥 . 𝟕𝟓% to 𝟐.𝟒𝟒% 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐅𝐞𝐥𝐥 𝐭𝐨 𝟏.𝟗𝟗%

June 1, 2020

• 144,932 New Cases This Week and 6,541 New Deaths.
• This week's growth dropped -0.75% to 2.44%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -1.30% to 1.99%
• Positivity Rate dropped -1.01to10.38%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(371.7K Cases) - 0.8%@2.4%
• NJ(160.9K) - 1.0%@3.7%
• IL(121.2K) -7.0%@ 7.9%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• ND(2.6K) - 7.0%@ 3.6%
• MN(25.2K) - 9.6%@ 9.9%
• IL(121.2K) - 17.5%@ 13.2%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• AK(0.5K) 10.8%@ 0.9%
• MT(0.5K) 6.1%@ 1.3%
• KY(10.0K) 5.0%@ 4.6%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
This is the first of the new weekly format. To make my life easier I have switched to reporting solely based upon covidtracking.com numbers. Previously I used both this source and Johns Hopkins. It is important to note that the two source don't always agree and as such the absolute numbers are different. Covidtracking reports fewer deaths and fewer cases.

Daily analysis by state is still via the spreadsheet which you can access yourself. .

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𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝟏.𝟖𝟏%

(𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐬 .𝟗𝟏% 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟏.𝟑𝟏% 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲).

𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐭𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠.

May 16, 2020

• 1.484MM Cases Today(1.48MM Predicted). Expect 1.51MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.08% to 1.81%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.17% to 1.81%
• Testing Growth(345,992) 0.0% to 3.3%
• Positivity Rate increased 0.11% to 6.79%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(356.0K Cases) 0.2%@ 0.8%
• NJ(145.5K) 0.2%@ 1.0%
• IL(90.4K) -0.6%@ 1.5%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• DE(7.4K Cases) - 1.8%@ 2.1%
• LA(33.8K) - 1.5%@ 1.0%
• MI(50.1K) - 1.4%@ 1.0%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• MN(14.2K) 1.9%@ 5.8%
• TX(46.8K) 1.5%@ 4.4%
• KY(7.4K) 1.0%@ 3.0%


𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Minnesota continues to struggle. Highest daily increase in the number of cases reported today(805) however there were no new reported hospitalizations. Positivity Rate yesterday was higher than cumulative positivity rate to date. This means that among people being tested more people are coming back positive. Which indicates spread on the uprise as well.

Follow Eric Gould's Analysis 

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𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐈𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐨𝐢𝐬 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟒𝐊 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐘𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲

May13, 2020

• 1.41MM Cases Today(1.41MM Predicted). Expects 1.43MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth increased 0.31% to 1.62%
• Today's Death Rate increased 0.69% to 1.92%
• Testing Growth(225,734)-1.7% to 2.4%
• 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝟐.𝟓𝟓% 𝐭𝐨 𝟕.𝟎𝟎% <== NEW METRIC

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(348.7K Cases) -0.1%@ 0.4%
• NJ(142.1K) -0.1%@ 0.7%
• MA(79.3K) 0.2%@ 1.1%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• NE(8.7K Cases) - 1.7%@ 1.4%
• NM(5.2K) - 1.4%@ 2.8%
• KS(7.2K) - 1.3%@ 1.3%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• IL(83.0K) 3.3%@ 5.0%
• AR(4.2K) 2.2%@ 2.9%
• OK(4.7K) 2.0%@ 2.5%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
New metric to score card: Positivity Rate and the daily change in that metric.
Positivity Rate = Testing Positive / Number of Tests Taken

This metric gives context to where we are from a testing perspective and in containing the virus. It has its own set of challenges and unknowns but again I my focus will be daily trend. Lower is better!

To see the progress of your state visit https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sl5GWpfJER-A0jlMDfoZbG46fqCXjJZFKvB5LCzFbFE/edit?usp=sharing

In the Today's Chart tab you can see Positivity Rates by state in a chart starting on row 196

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