COVID REPORT

 Eric Gould's Daily Analysis

March 19, 2017

In the TV show "Naked and Afraid" contestants are sent out to survive for 21 days in the wilderness without any protection (clothing) or help. Although I have no desire to walk around naked in the co...

February 1, 2017

WorkFusion, a New York-based artificial intelligence startup focused on improving companies’ back-end operations through machine learning, recently wrapped up a $35 million funding round, the company...

September 23, 2016

StellaService, which provides software and data services to help clients such as Zappos and Brooks Brothers deliver better online customer service, is going omnichannel, announcing today the acquisit...

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𝐍𝐮𝐦𝐛𝐞𝐫𝐬 𝐚𝐥𝐥 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝 𝐭𝐨𝐝𝐚𝐲.

𝐀 𝐃𝐞𝐞𝐩𝐞𝐫 𝐃𝐢𝐯𝐞 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐨 𝐔𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐭𝐚𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐂𝐨𝐯𝐢𝐝-𝟏𝟗 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡𝐬

May 18, 2020

• 1.53MM Cases Today(1.53MM Predicted). Expects 1.55 MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.24% to 1.57%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.46% to 1.35%
• Testing Growth(356,994)0.0% to 3.3%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.32% to 6.47%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
As of 5/14th:
• 41% of all Covid-19 deaths are in Long Term Care Facilities.
( 36 states reporting )
• 190K deaths in LTCF would be expected to die during Covid
• 111K would be due to infections
• 37K deaths in LTCF attributed to Covid

This leads to the questions that are not reported:
• How many have died in LTCF of all causes since Covid-19 started?
• How many have died from infections?

LTCF represent the worst of all scenarios. Vulnerable population in close quarters. Is Covid-19 just shining a light on the plight of LTCF residents and clouding how deadly Covid-19 really is?

The issue with Covid-19 is there are many dimensions to understand. This is just one.

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𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐒𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐥𝐲. 𝐓𝐫𝐨𝐮𝐛𝐥𝐞 𝐈𝐧 𝐈𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐨𝐢𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐞𝐬.

May 15, 2020

• 1.457MM Cases Today(1.45MM Predicted). Expects 1.48MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth increased 0.35% to 1.89%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.12% to 1.98%
• Testing Growth(335,182)0.2% to 3.4%
• Positivity Rate increased 0.07% to 6.75%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(353.1K Cases) 0.0%@ 0.6%
• NJ(144.0K) 0.3%@ 0.8%
• IL(87.9K) 0.6%@ 2.1%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• KY(7.2K Cases) - 1.2%@ 2.0%
• KS(7.7K) - 1.0%@ 2.6%
• UT(6.7K) - 1.0%@ 1.9%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• MS(10.5K) 2.0%@ 3.8%
• IL(87.9K) 1.8%@ 3.8%
• MI(49.6K) 1.7%@ 2.4%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Illinois had another bad day this week with the growth rate increasing 1.8% as it added 3.2K new cases and 136 dying. Mississippi also popped 2.0% is on my watch list as it surged today.

TGIF!

 

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To see the progress of your state visit
https://lnkd.in/eQ-FrMb

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𝐇𝐚𝐩𝐩𝐲 𝐒𝐮𝐧𝐝𝐚𝐲. 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐂𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐮𝐭𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐩. 𝟑𝟖 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐥𝐥 𝐒𝐚𝐰 𝐃𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬

May 17, 2020

• 1.51MM Cases Today(1.51MM Predicted). Expects 1.53 MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.24% to 1.57%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.46% to 1.35%
• Testing Growth(356,994)0.0% to 3.3%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.32% to 6.47%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(358.1K Cases) -0.2%@ 0.6%
• NJ(146.4K) -0.4%@ 0.6%
• IL(92.5K) 0.3%@ 1.8%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• TX(47.7K Cases) - 2.5%@ 1.9%
• KS(7.9K) - 2.0%@ 0.4%
• NV(6.7K) - 1.0%@ 0.7%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• ND(1.8K) 2.0%@ 4.8%
• WA(19.2K) 1.6%@ 2.3%
• WY(0.7K) 1.3%@ 3.4%

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𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐑𝐞𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐧𝐜𝐡𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐝. 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩𝐩𝐞𝐝 (-.𝟑𝟖% 𝐭𝐡𝐚𝐭'𝐬 𝐠𝐨𝐨𝐝). 𝐖𝐞 𝐜𝐫𝐨𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝟐𝐌𝐌 𝐧𝐞𝐰 𝐭𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐬 𝐚𝐝𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐚 𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐤.

May 14, 2020

• 1.43MM Cases Today(1.43MM Predicted). Expects 1.45MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.08% to 1.54%
• Today's Death Rate increased 0.18% to 2.10%
• Testing Growth(225,734)0.0% to 2.4%
• Positivity Rate dropped -0.32% to 6.68%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(350.8K Cases) 0.2%@ 0.6%
• NJ(142.9K) -0.1%@ 0.5%
• MA(80.5K) 0.4%@ 1.5%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• IL(84.7K Cases) - 3.0%@ 2.0%
• MN(12.9K) - 2.4%@ 3.3%
• SD(3.7K) - 2.2%@ 1.9%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• NE(9.1K) 2.9%@ 4.3%
• NC(16.4K) 2.3%@ 4.6%
• KS(7.5K) 2.3%@ 3.6%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Testing is key and although it may be happening slower than would be ideal and we are indeed ramping up our testing capacity. This past 7 days we added over 2MM new tests for the first time. Take a look at the chart of the day.

Illinois case reporting fell today but even at 2% growth and 84K cases they now have become third "Epicenter".

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𝐃𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐲 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐨𝐭𝐡 𝐝𝐫𝐨𝐩 𝐭𝐨 𝟏.𝟖𝟏%

(𝐥𝐨𝐰 𝐢𝐬 .𝟗𝟏% 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝟏.𝟑𝟏% 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐥𝐲).

𝐌𝐢𝐧𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐨𝐭𝐚 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐠𝐠𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐠.

May 16, 2020

• 1.484MM Cases Today(1.48MM Predicted). Expect 1.51MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth dropped -0.08% to 1.81%
• Today's Death Rate dropped -0.17% to 1.81%
• Testing Growth(345,992) 0.0% to 3.3%
• Positivity Rate increased 0.11% to 6.79%

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(356.0K Cases) 0.2%@ 0.8%
• NJ(145.5K) 0.2%@ 1.0%
• IL(90.4K) -0.6%@ 1.5%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• DE(7.4K Cases) - 1.8%@ 2.1%
• LA(33.8K) - 1.5%@ 1.0%
• MI(50.1K) - 1.4%@ 1.0%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• MN(14.2K) 1.9%@ 5.8%
• TX(46.8K) 1.5%@ 4.4%
• KY(7.4K) 1.0%@ 3.0%


𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
Minnesota continues to struggle. Highest daily increase in the number of cases reported today(805) however there were no new reported hospitalizations. Positivity Rate yesterday was higher than cumulative positivity rate to date. This means that among people being tested more people are coming back positive. Which indicates spread on the uprise as well.

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𝐆𝐫𝐨𝐰𝐭𝐡 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐃𝐞𝐚𝐭𝐡 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞 𝐚𝐬 𝐈𝐥𝐥𝐢𝐧𝐨𝐢𝐬 𝐒𝐮𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐬 𝐀𝐝𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝟒𝐊 𝐂𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐘𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐚𝐲

May13, 2020

• 1.41MM Cases Today(1.41MM Predicted). Expects 1.43MM tomorrow.
• Today's growth increased 0.31% to 1.62%
• Today's Death Rate increased 0.69% to 1.92%
• Testing Growth(225,734)-1.7% to 2.4%
• 𝐏𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐑𝐚𝐭𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐜𝐫𝐞𝐚𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝟐.𝟓𝟓% 𝐭𝐨 𝟕.𝟎𝟎% <== NEW METRIC

𝐄𝐩𝐢𝐜𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐫 𝐔𝐩𝐝𝐚𝐭𝐞
• NY(348.7K Cases) -0.1%@ 0.4%
• NJ(142.1K) -0.1%@ 0.7%
• MA(79.3K) 0.2%@ 1.1%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐆𝐨𝐨𝐝
• NE(8.7K Cases) - 1.7%@ 1.4%
• NM(5.2K) - 1.4%@ 2.8%
• KS(7.2K) - 1.3%@ 1.3%

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐁𝐚𝐝
• IL(83.0K) 3.3%@ 5.0%
• AR(4.2K) 2.2%@ 2.9%
• OK(4.7K) 2.0%@ 2.5%

𝐅𝐨𝐜𝐮𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐃𝐚𝐲
New metric to score card: Positivity Rate and the daily change in that metric.
Positivity Rate = Testing Positive / Number of Tests Taken

This metric gives context to where we are from a testing perspective and in containing the virus. It has its own set of challenges and unknowns but again I my focus will be daily trend. Lower is better!

To see the progress of your state visit https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sl5GWpfJER-A0jlMDfoZbG46fqCXjJZFKvB5LCzFbFE/edit?usp=sharing

In the Today's Chart tab you can see Positivity Rates by state in a chart starting on row 196

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